Only two of the twenty-three scheduled races of 2022 have been run so far. But what we have learnt from Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is likely to characterize the first portion of the season. Ferrari has clearly delivered a car capable of producing peak pace for qualifying and one that is more than capable of delivering long-run pace that is not only competitive but puts them in a position to win races. Red Bull too seems to have produced a car that is capable of winning but is perhaps not yet able to deliver the one-lap quali pace as easily as Ferrari.
When there is a major rule change there is always the potential for the pecking order to be re-arranged. But few would have expected Mercedes to stumble early on. After all, the German mark has won a staggering eight constructor’s titles in a row. But fundamental change can catch out even the very best. Bahrain and Saudi exposed some serious deficiencies in the W13 Mercedes. Not only is it still struggling to get a handle on the porpoising (bouncing) at high speed, but aerodynamically the car also seems to be on the draggier end of the scale. Speaking of scales, the Merc is also one of the heaviest cars on the grid, which is not helped by the engine. From the first two rounds of the season, and comparison of speed-trap figures it’s clear that the Merc engine is lacking in comparison to the Ferrari and Red Bull-badged Honda. And heck if numbers isn’t your thing have a gander at the quali results and notice that Merc-engined cars are dominating the bottom-half of the grid.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff remains as bullish as ever and promises that the team will not rest until it finds its way back to the front of the pack. The question remains how long this recovery will take, and will it be in time for the team to be in the mix for the titles? This weekend there may be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel for Mercedes. Formula 1 returns to race in Australia for the first time since 2019. The Albert Park circuit is an outlier on the calendar, a unique semi-street track that combines medium to higher-speed turns and rewards good braking performance.
It is a circuit that has the potential to mask some deficiencies in a car. Missing some k’s on the top-end? This is not much of a problem here as the circuit has a relatively short start/finish strait. Unfortunately, the turn 9 and 10 chicane has been removed which has transformed this sector of the track into a 1.3 km long blast at full throttle. The good news is that several of the corners (read turns 1,3, and 6) have been made broader to encourage more overtaking. All in all, the changes to the track is expected to drop the lap time by an estimated five seconds.
It isn’t exactly a bold suggestion to postulate that Ferrari and Red Bull are likely to duke it out for pole and the win. But already the narrative of Verstappen versus Leclerc is being woven. What then of Carlos Sainz? If Ferrari maintains their competitiveness throughout the season this is the Spaniard’s most important season. Sainz was a match for Leclerc in 2021 but it wasn’t under the guise of championship battle and the colossally unremitting pressure which accompanies it. This will reveal if Sainz is champion-material or not.
For Hamilton and George Russell things should go better than it did in Saudi. But then it could hardly be worse than a Q1 knock-out.
