The FIA confirmed this morning that Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix will go ahead as planned at 15:00 local time. Typhoon Phanfone however remains a real threat to the race at Suzuka.

Earlier this morning, the Typhoon Phanfone had been upgraded to a super typhoon but has since been downgraded again to a typhoon. The exact path that the storm is set to take remains uncertain but forecasts are suggesting that it could pass south of the Suzuka circuit at around 18:00 with wind speeds of up to 170 km/h.

Even if Typhoon Phanfone does not hit the circuit directly, the outlying rain bands that will come with it are quite likely to disrupt the Japanese Grand Prix, and could even make it impossible to race. According to UBIMET, the official weather partner of the FIA have also indicated that the Japanese Grand Prix will almost certainly be run in wet weather.

The FIA have said that it will continue to monitor Typhoon Phanfone and has reiterated that safety remains the primary concern. There are talks of an option to run the race behind the safety car for at least two laps to ensure that half points can be awarded. However, even this might not be possible. If the rain is too severe, there is no way they would risk the lives of the drivers. Furthermore, sunset is expected at around 17:30, so the race will only have two and a half hours in which to run instead of the four hour time limit which the regulations allow for.

“Although we expect rain during the normal race period, the heaviest rain and possibly storm force winds will affect the circuit later on” said expert on-site meteorologists for UBIMET, Steffen Dietz and Andy Swan. “More problematic will be the demobilisation and onward transport of the equipment to Sochi, where the next Grand Prix will be run on Sunday October 12th.”

F1 teams usually pack well into the night following a grand prix and continue the following day in order to ensure that their freight makes it to its next destination on time. There is very little doubt that Typhoon Phanfone has a serious chance of disrupting that.

“The main body of the typhoon will impact most of Honshu on Sunday night with gusts of up to 120 kph (75 mph) and torrential rain over a few hours. Disruption to transport out of Nagoya airport is almost certain,” Dietz and Swan added.

“Probably Phanfone will pass to the southeast of Suzuka. There are also model solutions that can draw the eye directly on the race circuit. In both cases severe structural damage is expected on Monday, with possible widespread severe damage from the second case.”

Nevertheless, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff is optimistic the race will still go ahead.

“Actually I have heard the opposite,” he said. “I don’t know if the storm is going to be further south, but I have heard that there are going to be banks of rain with dry places in between. At the moment I think we have to just get on with it.”

When asked about the impact that Typhoon Phanfone will have on getting to Sochi on time, Wolff said, “If you know that this is going to hit you on Sunday night or Monday, the only thing you can do is work flat-out and try to get the freight onto the airplane. But at the end of the day this is force majeure, if the storm’s going to hit transport generally and the planes leaving then we have a problem. Formula One has overcome larger obstacles than 24 hours of delay. But, honestly, I don’t know.”