Formula 1 is likely one of the most difficult sports to predict accurately. There will be those who scoff at this and point to Mercedes’s six consecutive title-winning seasons as the perfect example of how predictable it is. But while championship glory is the ultimate prize there are so many more stories that combine to make Formula 1 the greatest sport in the world.
After a brutal half-season at Red Bull who would’ve predicted that Pierre Gasly so brilliantly rise to the occasion and end 2020 as a race winner? And who would’ve thought that Sergio Perez would win in Bahrain much less be signed up to Red Bull for 2021? And even fewer would’ve expected Ferrari not to keep Seb Vettel in their stable. The point here is that as much predictability as there can be in F1 there can be equally if not more unpredictability too. And on that note let’s set some of our own predictions for 2021. Now, these may well not pan out the way we expect heck they probably won’t, it is F1 after all. But if they do we’ll be happy to take credit and equally as happy to admit that we were wrong after a lengthy steward’s enquiry has been conducted.
We return to some predictions made all the way back in February this year to gauge how right or wrong we were.
Most improved driver
Natalie:
Seb Vettel has endured two and a half miserable seasons at Ferrari. Up to the mid-point of 2018, Vettel looked strong and very much on course to push Lewis Hamilton all the way to the ragged edge for the title. But it spectacularly unravelled and Ferrari fell dramatically by the wayside in succeeding years.
Some would say that Vettel has lost his edge but it might well be a case of Ferrari simply sucking the life out of him. He simply hasn’t looked like the jovial driver we have come to know. With Aston Martin, he may not be challenging for the title but Vettel has a great chance to re-ignite his passion for the sport and to re-discover what has made him one of the greats. The prediction is for Vettel to be on the podium in 2021 and to remind everyone of just how good he is.
End-of-season result: While Seb Vettel did, technically, stand on the podium in Hungary he didn’t quite fulfil the lofty expectations set for him before the start of the season. Though he did get to keep his Baku podium finish.
Final Opinion: Most improved driver – Carlos Sainz. The Spanish driver took like a duck to water in the Ferrari and not only underlined his inherent speed but also beat his highly-rated teammate, Charles Leclerc, to fifth in the driver’s standings.
Our tech writer:
I’m not one to agree with Natalie very quickly and this is no exception. There are quite a few that could be seen as most improved for the year. Sergio Perez is one of the names that come to mind. The Mexican is more mature, he’s measured in his approach and he has a new team to get settled in. Being at Red Bull won’t be very easy. The team is built around Max Verstappen after all. There will be a huge expectation on Perez to beat or just get close to Verstappen. It’s a long shot but my money is on Perez. Honourable mention here for Ricciardo and Stroll.
End-of-season result: I was wildly off with the Ricciardo prediction. Perez didn’t do too bad but not great either. Perez blew hot and cold throughout the season. He delivered when it counted.
Final Opinion: Have to go with Sainz. He did well with McLaren the previous season and then got to Ferrari and was classified every race this season leading to his P5 position in the driver’s championship. Mr Consistency this season.
Driver of the year
Natalie:
For some time Sergio Perez has been steadily plugging away, scoring points, and holding Racing Point together. He’d had a chance in 2013 at McLaren but it came to early on in the Mexican’s career and he never found his groove. Perez stepped up to a new level in 2020 and is very likely to build on this. In 2021 he will have a car capable of winning races. His experience, consistency, and speed will combine to catapult Checo Perez into the upper echelon of the grid.
End-of-season result: Checo had some real struggles matching teammate Verstappen, but who can blame him really.
Final Opinion: 10 race wins and 10 pole positions combine to make Max Verstappen not only the 2021 champion but also the best driver of the year. His drives in France and Texas stand out the most.
Our tech writer:
The best driver of the turbo-hybrid era has to be Lewis Hamilton. He’s in the best car and his performances have just been on another level to his peers. If he takes his 8th world title there’s no doubt he takes driver of the year.
Final Opinion: I’d still put Hamilton as the driver of the year. His ability to focus and put in performance after performance to narrow the championship gap down to zero coming into the final race of the season is what a 7-time world champion would do. He fought with everything till the chequered flag in the last race.
Most improved team
Natalie:
McLaren is already on a solid upwards trajectory and it will continue in 2021. Not only is the Mercedes engine being installed in the back of the McLaren chassis but they have also welcomed Daniel Ricciardo to the team. The Aussie will find his feet quickly and when he does he is a proven superstar that will deliver for McLaren.
End-of-season result: McLaren faded a bit towards the end of the season but they delivered a stellar racing year including a brilliant one-two finish at Monza.
Final Opinion: Sticking with McLaren.
Our tech writer:
Ferrari has a low base to work from. 2020 was abysmal for the Scuderia. Some restructuring went on at the office and no doubt some shiny new toys in the factory to improve the car. There are some positive noises coming out of Maranello pre-testing regarding the power unit. Aerodynamically they’ve been making some strides throughout 2020 and seem to be on some sort of pathway. And with Charles Leclerc who’s now the de-facto leader in the team, will be chomping at the bit to get going this season.
End-of-season result: Ferrari started there about, a slight slump in the midseason saw them drop below McLaren in the constructor’s championship. They kept at it and improved the car and ended up securing third in the championship. Finishing best of the rest is the consolation prize when you’re well and truly beaten every weekend. Special mention to Williams who finished ahead of Alfa Romeo in the standings. Another special mention to Alphatauri and their battle with Alpine. Franz Tost was aiming for P5. They were just beaten to it at the end by Alpine.
Final Opinion: Ferrari.
Constructor’s title
Natalie:
This is the type of predication that could very well not come to fruition but we’re going to make it anyway. The combination of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez is one that can deliver big points race-in-and-race-out. Red Bull unlocked some of their potential towards the end of 2020 and with a point-scoring machine like Perez in the car, they have a great opportunity of snatching this trophy.
End-of-season result: Checo Perez’s struggle to get comfortable in the Red Bull were slightly underestimated. But he certainly did the job in Abu Dhabi, didn’t he?
Final Opinion: Mercedes definitely deserved an 8th constructor’s title. There’s no doubt they were nerfed a bit by the new regs, as it customary in F1. There was no doubt a monumental effort to get the car into shape and it showed.
Our tech writer:
Constructors title No. 8 for Mercedes. I just don’t see any other team that’s able to challenge the Silver Arrows this year.
End-of-season result: Red Bull got close. A couple of unlucky races for them together with some poor showings from Perez cost them the constructors title at the end.
Final Opinion: Well deserved by Mercedes.
Driver’s title
Natalie:
When he eventually puts pen to paper on his contract Lewis Hamilton is the likely shoo-in for the driver’s title. A couple of early wins in the season to build his own momentum and to see if the short-term ‘threat’ of Valtteri Bottas and he should be well on his way to title number eight.
End-of-season result: Who would’ve thought that 2021 would finally see the end of Hamilton’s domination. He gave it all he had though in a season that will be remembered for all of time.
Final Opinion: Max Verstappen’s triumph as driver’s champion comes after an unforgettable season and it is richly deserved. Super Max!
Our tech writer:
I see I’m going to have to agree with Natalie on something! Bottas 4.0 or whatever version we’re on, it just seemed like beta testing all this time. It’s going to be Hamilton unless something drastic happens and we have Verstappen sneaking past at the end. That will be a coup for the bookies. Worth a fiver on Verstappen for the title then?
Final Opinion: Did anyone place their bets on Verstappen? People were ready to tear them up by lap 1 of the Abu Dhabi GP race. Something drastic did happen a few laps from the end and Verstappen snatched his first world title at the end.
2021 has been a season of anxiety, entertainment, controversy, penalties, and most of all – unpredictability. It is likely to be remembered as certainly the best season of the Hybrid era and definitely as one of the greatest of all time.
The Mercedes and the Red Bull have been closely matched in 2021. There isn’t must to suggest that it will be any different in Monaco. If anything, Red Bull’s most apparent advantage this season has been in qualifying. It’s is an advantage, if still prevalent, that will stand them in good stead in Monaco. But Red Bull also needs Checo Perez to step up to the occasion. The Mexican’s race pace can hardly be questioned but too often his lackluster quali form has left him out of the equation in Red Bull’s fight with Mercedes. An improved quali performance wouldn’t only imbue Perez with confidence but having to fight against two Red Bull’s will also force Mercedes and Hamilton into a position that haven’t been in before.
